2019 · Week 15

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

30·24

Panthers

Carolina

QB Kyle Allen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.018EPA / play-0.082
  • 45.5%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.106
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +7.05CPOE-2.45
  • 39.1%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.56
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
SEAQ1 15:00875Touchdown6–0
CARQ1 10:2637Punt6–0
SEAQ1 9:42885Touchdown13–0
CARQ1 5:221275Touchdown13–7
SEAQ2 13:43880Touchdown20–7
CARQ2 10:093-8Punt20–7
SEAQ2 8:38517Punt20–7
CARQ2 6:11740Punt20–7
SEAQ2 1:513-5Punt20–7
CARQ2 1:32528Turnover20–7
SEAQ2 0:222-1End of half20–7
CARQ3 15:00841Field goal20–10
SEAQ3 11:35530Punt20–10
CARQ3 9:111151Turnover20–10
SEAQ3 4:2324Turnover20–10
CARQ3 3:3625Turnover20–10
SEAQ3 2:55314Field goal23–10
CARQ3 0:28416Punt23–10
SEAQ4 13:401182Touchdown30–10
CARQ4 7:18975Touchdown30–17
SEAQ4 4:5335Punt30–17
CARQ4 4:25784Touchdown30–24
SEAQ4 3:14744End of half30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2628620
Josh Gordon0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson241335.52
C.J. Prosise5153.00
Travis Homer273.50
Russell Wilson3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett891201
Josh Gordon11580
DK Metcalf24361
Malik Turner33260
Jacob Hollister33230
C.J. Prosise11100
Jaron Brown1190
Chris Carson1240

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Allen25/4127713
Christian McCaffrey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey19874.62
Kyle Allen5255.00
Curtis Samuel4235.80
DJ Moore11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore8121130
Christian McCaffrey810880
Curtis Samuel57311
Ian Thomas23230
Chris Hogan13130
Jarius Wright1490

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.72