Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play-0.082
- 45.5%Success rate43.3%
- +0.119EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- +7.05CPOE-2.45
- 39.1%Third-down rate32.4%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.86Points / drive1.56
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/26 | 286 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 24 | 133 | 5.5 | 2 |
| C.J. Prosise | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 9 | 120 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 1 | 58 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Malik Turner | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Allen | 25/41 | 277 | 1 | 3 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 87 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Kyle Allen | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 12 | 113 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 88 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72