2022 · Week 14

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

30·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.013
  • 40.8%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -4.71CPOE+5.46
  • 31.6%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.05
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SEA
CARQ1 15:001253Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 7:0510Turnover9–0
CARQ1 6:49113Touchdown10–0
SEAQ1 6:4467Punt10–0
CARQ1 4:271274Touchdown17–0
SEAQ2 12:35767Touchdown17–7
CARQ2 9:263-7Punt17–7
SEAQ2 7:5736Turnover17–7
CARQ2 6:18714Field goal20–7
SEAQ2 2:09946Touchdown20–14
CARQ2 0:1610End of half20–14
SEAQ3 15:00851Field goal20–17
CARQ3 10:0038Punt20–17
SEAQ3 8:1330Punt20–17
CARQ3 7:141466Turnover on downs20–17
SEAQ3 0:34833Punt20–17
CARQ4 12:231074Touchdown27–17
SEAQ4 6:5732Punt27–17
CARQ4 6:17834Field goal30–17
SEAQ4 1:56675Touchdown30–24
CARQ4 0:1600End of half30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/2412010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman21743.50
Chuba Hubbard14745.31
Raheem Blackshear4328.01
Sam Darnold4307.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.177.00
DJ Moore263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laviska Shenault Jr.44310
Chuba Hubbard33250
Terrace Marshall Jr.11180
Shi Smith22171
Raheem Blackshear11170
Ian Thomas22110
D'Onta Foreman1110
DJ Moore0300
Stephen Sullivan0100
Tommy Tremble0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith21/3626432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Homer9262.90
Geno Smith3206.70
Tony Jones122.00
Marquise Goodwin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin56951
DK Metcalf510711
Tyler Lockett59601
Will Dissly23200
Colby Parkinson12100
Travis Homer2380
Noah Fant0100
Tony Jones1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.53