Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.013
- 40.8%Success rate44.8%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.2%
- -4.71CPOE+5.46
- 31.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate54.3%
- 1.70Points / drive2.05
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/24 | 120 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 21 | 74 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 21/36 | 264 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Homer | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 5 | 6 | 95 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.53