2023 · Week 3

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

27·37

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.160EPA / play+0.032
  • 38.2%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.094
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.087
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.80CPOE+1.54
  • 34.8%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
  • 1.00Points / drive2.00
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:251140Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 7:47940Field goal3–3
CARQ1 3:3347Punt3–3
SEAQ1 1:10874Field goal3–6
CARQ2 12:0734Punt3–6
SEAQ2 10:45546Field goal3–9
CARQ2 8:45885Touchdown10–9
SEAQ2 4:543-6Turnover10–9
CARQ2 4:1637Field goal13–9
SEAQ2 2:391054Field goal13–12
CARQ2 0:44527Punt13–12
SEAQ2 0:0100End of half13–12
CARQ3 15:0031Punt13–12
SEAQ3 13:53950Field goal13–15
CARQ3 9:45638Missed field goal13–15
SEAQ3 8:09975Touchdown13–22
CARQ3 3:521073Touchdown20–22
SEAQ4 14:55662Touchdown20–29
CARQ4 11:40936Punt20–29
SEAQ4 8:0237Punt20–29
CARQ4 5:5050Turnover on downs20–29
SEAQ4 4:47527Touchdown20–37
CARQ4 4:171260Touchdown27–37
SEAQ4 1:4000End of half27–37

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton34/5836120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders9242.71
Andy Dalton2115.50
Laviska Shenault Jr.273.50
Chuba Hubbard122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen11141451
DJ Chark411861
Miles Sanders59380
Terrace Marshall Jr.58350
Jonathan Mingo36210
Tommy Tremble11150
Hayden Hurst13110
Ian Thomas1180
Chuba Hubbard2320
Laviska Shenault Jr.1100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3629611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III18975.42
Zach Charbonnet9465.10
DeeJay Dallas273.50
Geno Smith4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf681120
Kenneth Walker III33590
Noah Fant45410
Colby Parkinson34380
Tyler Lockett37340
Jaxon Smith-Njigba13100
Jake Bobo1251
Zach Charbonnet12-10
DeeJay Dallas11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.3%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.55
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.89