Closing spread
SEA -5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play+0.032
- 38.2%Success rate44.6%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.094
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.087
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.80CPOE+1.54
- 34.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate49.3%
- 1.00Points / drive2.00
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 34/58 | 361 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 11 | 14 | 145 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 11 | 86 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 5 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 5 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/36 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 18 | 97 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 8 | 112 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-6.55
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.89