2015 · DIV

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

24·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPanthers
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.074
  • 47.1%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.022
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +7.64CPOE+0.41
  • 47.8%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.18Points / drive2.31
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–CAR
CARQ1 15:00469Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 12:302-3Opp touchdown0–14
SEAQ1 11:38528Punt0–14
CARQ1 8:021591Touchdown0–21
SEAQ2 14:1810Turnover0–21
CARQ2 14:123-1Field goal0–24
SEAQ2 12:373-8Punt0–24
CARQ2 11:11954Touchdown0–31
SEAQ2 6:261376Turnover on downs0–31
CARQ2 2:1537Punt0–31
SEAQ2 1:05330Missed field goal0–31
SEAQ3 15:00435Touchdown7–31
CARQ3 13:2765Punt7–31
SEAQ3 10:20763Touchdown14–31
CARQ3 7:40732Punt14–31
SEAQ3 4:14839Punt14–31
CARQ3 0:26926Punt14–31
SEAQ4 9:32973Touchdown21–31
CARQ4 6:04519Punt21–31
SEAQ4 2:49970Field goal24–31
CARQ4 1:1200End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson31/4836632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson33210.70
Marshawn Lynch6203.30
Fred Jackson294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse11151102
Doug Baldwin812820
Tyler Lockett34751
Luke Willson47540
Fred Jackson23230
Marshawn Lynch23150
Kevin Smith1170
Christine Michael0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton16/2216110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart191065.62
Ted Ginn11111.00
Cameron Artis-Payne372.30
Cam Newton1130.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen66771
Jerricho Cotchery34220
Ed Dickson22220
Corey Brown25220
Devin Funchess11120
Jonathan Stewart1150
Cameron Artis-Payne1110
Ted Ginn0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.01