Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.074
- 47.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.255EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.022
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +7.64CPOE+0.41
- 47.8%Third-down rate42.1%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.18Points / drive2.31
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CAR are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 31/48 | 366 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 11 | 15 | 110 | 2 |
| Doug Baldwin | 8 | 12 | 82 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 75 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 16/22 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 19 | 106 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 3 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.01