Closing spread
SEA -7
Total
41
Model margin
+2.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play+0.105
- 45.5%Success rate47.1%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.255
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.104
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.41CPOE+7.64
- 42.1%Third-down rate47.8%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.31Points / drive2.18
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/36 | 269 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 7 | 11 | 131 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/30 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 8 | 12 | 140 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 2 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.97