2015 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

27·23

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -7

Total

41

Model margin

+2.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.074EPA / play+0.105
  • 45.5%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.255
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.104
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +0.41CPOE+7.64
  • 42.1%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.18
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2014 · playoffsCAR @ SEA17–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CARQ1 14:063-2Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:57610Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:023-3Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 8:13421Field goal0–3
CARQ1 5:371575Touchdown7–3
SEAQ2 13:301296Touchdown7–10
CARQ2 8:00630Punt7–10
SEAQ2 5:05414Punt7–10
CARQ2 2:42627Turnover on downs7–10
SEAQ2 0:5338Punt7–10
CARQ2 0:3000End of half7–10
CARQ3 15:0038Punt7–10
SEAQ3 13:25463Touchdown7–17
CARQ3 11:2723Turnover7–17
SEAQ3 10:4031Field goal7–20
CARQ3 8:491180Touchdown14–20
SEAQ3 3:3432Punt14–20
CARQ3 2:323-6Punt14–20
SEAQ3 0:57759Field goal14–23
CARQ4 11:46312Punt14–23
SEAQ4 10:0638Punt14–23
CARQ4 8:08980Touchdown20–23
SEAQ4 3:55517Punt20–23
CARQ4 2:20780Touchdown27–23
SEAQ4 0:32430End of half27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/3626912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart20783.92
Cam Newton7304.31
Corey Brown2157.50
Fozzy Whittaker122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen7111311
Ed Dickson34240
Devin Funchess26240
Corey Brown23220
Jerricho Cotchery24210
Fozzy Whittaker22210
Ted Ginn14180
Jonathan Stewart1180

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3024110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch17543.21
Russell Wilson8536.60
Thomas Rawls188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham8121400
Ricardo Lockette22431
Doug Baldwin34230
Luke Willson11160
Chris Matthews11120
Fred Jackson2270
Marshawn Lynch1300
Jermaine Kearse0300
Tyler Lockett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.97