Closing spread
CHI -5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.043
- 39.0%Success rate40.5%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.87CPOE-3.37
- 33.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.59
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/26 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Bennett | 7 | 8 | 104 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Manumaleuna | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 16/24 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 3 | 5 | 66 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.66