2010 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

24·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Drew Stanton

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapLions
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.043
  • 39.0%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.87CPOE-3.37
  • 33.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.59
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. DET are 27-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00936Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:493-5Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:01738Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 6:361471Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 0:031049Field goal7–10
CHIQ2 9:31878Touchdown14–10
DETQ2 4:40439Punt14–10
CHIQ2 2:37644Punt14–10
DETQ2 0:53291Touchdown14–17
CHIQ2 0:3400End of half14–17
CHIQ3 15:002-12Turnover14–17
DETQ3 14:1032Field goal14–20
CHIQ3 12:38819Punt14–20
DETQ3 7:0134Punt14–20
CHIQ3 5:29410Field goal17–20
DETQ3 2:401139Turnover on downs17–20
CHIQ4 11:55653Touchdown24–20
DETQ4 8:3964Punt24–20
CHIQ4 5:17756End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/2623410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte13644.91
Chester Taylor9333.71
Jay Cutler5122.40
Devin Hester155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Earl Bennett781040
Matt Forte23360
Johnny Knox33340
Chester Taylor55310
Brandon Manumaleuna22231
Greg Olsen1150
Devin Hester1310
Devin Aromashodu0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton16/2417810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best9657.20
Maurice Morris10373.70
Stefan Logan2189.00
Drew Stanton5122.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson35661
Brandon Pettigrew59360
Jahvid Best11320
Nate Burleson35270
Tony Scheffler2290
Will Heller1150
Maurice Morris1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.62
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.66