Closing spread
CLE -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play-0.013
- 40.4%Success rate42.4%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.12CPOE-2.23
- 37.0%Third-down rate42.7%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.36Points / drive1.84
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 24/43 | 256 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 2 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/25 | 245 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.34