Closing spread
CLE -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.078EPA / play-0.013
- 40.4%Success rate42.4%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.12CPOE-2.23
- 37.0%Third-down rate42.7%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.36Points / drive1.84
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CLE lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.5 points. CLE are 8-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CLE | Q1 11:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 10:00 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CLE | Q1 6:17 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| MIA | Q1 0:09 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CLE | Q2 14:00 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| MIA | Q2 8:50 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 3–23 |
| CLE | Q2 6:19 | 1 | 24 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| MIA | Q2 6:13 | 12 | 100 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| CLE | Q2 1:03 | 6 | 75 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| CLE | Q3 7:57 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–27 |
| MIA | Q3 6:25 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| CLE | Q3 2:44 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 24–34 |
| MIA | Q4 10:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–34 |
| CLE | Q4 9:01 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 24–41 |
| MIA | Q4 4:34 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 24–41 |
| CLE | Q4 2:32 | 1 | 2 | Turnover | 24–41 |
| MIA | Q4 2:25 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 31–41 |
| CLE | Q4 1:34 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 31–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 24/43 | 256 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 2 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 18/25 | 245 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Wright | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 8 | 57 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Derek Anderson | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.34