2010 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

6·10

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -9

Total

48

Model margin

+5.2est.

KC perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.034
  • 39.3%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.031
  • 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.61CPOE-1.87
  • 31.6%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.70
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:03517Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:593-7Punt0–0
KCQ1 7:441170Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 1:15627Punt0–7
KCQ2 12:481067Punt0–7
DENQ2 6:391290Field goal3–7
KCQ2 1:19644Field goal3–10
DENQ2 0:0300End of half3–10
KCQ3 15:001448Turnover on downs3–10
DENQ3 7:3232Punt3–10
KCQ3 6:35729Punt3–10
DENQ3 3:1610Punt3–10
DENQ3 3:0912Punt3–10
DENQ3 2:4910Punt3–10
KCQ3 2:36316Turnover3–10
DENQ3 1:24744Field goal6–10
KCQ4 13:4236Punt6–10
DENQ4 12:26734Turnover6–10
KCQ4 9:58411Punt6–10
DENQ4 8:0830Punt6–10
KCQ4 7:44735Punt6–10
DENQ4 3:56424Punt6–10
KCQ4 2:23516Punt6–10
DENQ4 0:0010End of half6–10

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton9/2811700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno231617.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd211310
Jabar Gaffney25280
Eric Decker11280
Knowshon Moreno13140
Dan Gronkowski1190
Eddie Royal2670
Daniel Graham0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel17/3119610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles211165.50
Thomas Jones11534.80
Dexter McCluster5112.20
Matt Cassel252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Thomas Jones45540
Tony Moeaki47540
Verran Tucker24280
Dexter McCluster23250
Jamaal Charles22200
Terrance Copper23130
Leonard Pope1121
Dwayne Bowe0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.16