Closing spread
KC -9
Total
48
Model margin
+5.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.034
- 39.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.031
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.61CPOE-1.87
- 31.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.70Points / drive1.70
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 9/28 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 23 | 161 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 2 | 11 | 31 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/31 | 196 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.16