Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.017
- 44.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.153
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.85CPOE-0.87
- 39.5%Third-down rate34.8%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.86Points / drive1.83
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 14/19 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 31 | 186 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 10 | 19 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/32 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 1 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.25