2010 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

17·6

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.017
  • 44.9%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.153
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.85CPOE-0.87
  • 39.5%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.83
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–TEN
TENQ1 15:00625Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:261277Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 5:51419Punt7–0
JAXQ1 2:59931Punt7–0
TENQ2 13:1910Turnover7–0
JAXQ2 13:111367Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 5:38630Turnover on downs14–0
JAXQ2 2:41944Field goal17–0
JAXQ3 15:00929Punt17–0
TENQ3 9:29962Field goal17–3
JAXQ3 5:58538Missed field goal17–3
TENQ3 3:141453Field goal17–6
JAXQ4 12:05635Missed field goal17–6
TENQ4 7:4747Turnover on downs17–6
JAXQ4 7:09621Turnover on downs17–6
TENQ4 4:04624Turnover17–6
JAXQ4 2:47238End of half17–6

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard14/1912600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew311866.00
Rashad Jennings10444.41
David Garrard10191.91
Zach Miller294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis34360
Zach Miller33340
Mike Thomas45310
Rashad Jennings22100
Maurice Jones-Drew1140
Kassim Osgood0100
Jason Hill0100
Zach Potter0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins14/3216902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson13534.10
Kerry Collins144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook46470
Nate Washington36400
Justin Gage14250
Craig Stevens13190
Chris Johnson22140
Randy Moss13130
Bo Scaife1470
Javon Ringer1140
Damian Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

47.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.25