Closing spread
SD -12.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- DoubtfulChris JohnsonCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableChaz SchilensWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNnamdi AsomughaCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableZach MillerTEFoot· Limited
- DNPBruce GradkowskiQBright Shoulder
Chargers
- OutPatrick CraytonWRWrist· DNP
- DoubtfulLouis VasquezGNeck· DNP
- DoubtfulVincent JacksonWRCalf· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEToe· Limited
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRHamstring· Full
- QuestionableMike TolbertRBHand· Limited
- QuestionableStephen CooperLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableSteve GregorySShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDonald StricklandCBHip· Full
- ProbableKris WilsonTEBack· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableTravis JohnsonDEShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:45 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:35 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:06 | 11 | 41 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:30 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:05 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:07 | 7 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 21–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:37 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:08 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 21–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:27 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 21–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q3 11:30 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LV | Q3 9:45 | 11 | 54 | Punt | 21–3 |
| LAC | Q3 4:05 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 21–6 |
| LV | Q3 0:44 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 21–6 |
| LAC | Q4 12:44 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| LV | Q4 9:59 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| LAC | Q4 4:35 | 7 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 28–13 |
| LV | Q4 2:57 | 7 | 22 | End of half | 28–13 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.