2010 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

13·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

38

Model margin

+0.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.028
  • 40.3%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.102
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +3.44CPOE+2.93
  • 44.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.78
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
PITQ1 14:16610Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:4932Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:3439Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:0911110Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 1:59613Punt0–7
BALQ2 13:0037Punt0–7
PITQ2 12:04535Turnover0–7
BALQ2 9:52660Punt0–7
PITQ2 5:271147Punt0–7
BALQ2 0:4611End of half0–7
PITQ3 15:00753Field goal3–7
BALQ3 10:541255Field goal3–10
PITQ3 7:131674Field goal6–10
BALQ4 12:4632Punt6–10
PITQ4 11:1142Punt6–10
BALQ4 9:4634Punt6–10
PITQ4 8:14537Punt6–10
BALQ4 4:434-8Turnover6–10
PITQ4 3:1339Touchdown13–10
BALQ4 2:511043Turnover on downs13–10
PITQ4 0:3300End of half13–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/3825311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall19452.40
Isaac Redman4102.50
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace57760
Emmanuel Sanders36490
David Johnson33370
Antonio Brown34260
Isaac Redman22231
Rashard Mendenhall37180
Hines Ward14130
Heath Miller1490
Mewelde Moore1120

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco17/3326610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice9323.60
Joe Flacco3155.00
Willis McGahee771.00
Donte' Stallworth1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin591181
Donte' Stallworth12670
Derrick Mason23220
Ed Dickson37210
T.J. Houshmandzadeh46200
Ray Rice24180
Todd Heap0100
Dennis Pitta0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.86