Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.028
- 40.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.102
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +3.44CPOE+2.93
- 44.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.89Points / drive1.78
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/38 | 253 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 19 | 45 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 3 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/33 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 5 | 9 | 118 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 2 | 67 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.86