2010 · Week 13

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Troy Smith

16·34

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

GB -9

Total

41

Model margin

+3.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Packers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPackers
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.076
  • 38.8%Success rate45.9%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.117
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -4.51CPOE+5.31
  • 33.2%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 13–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12SF @ GB10–38GB
2023 · playoffsGB @ SF21–24SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ GB13–10SF
2021 · W3GB @ SF30–28GB
2020 · W9GB @ SF34–17GB
2019 · playoffsGB @ SF20–37SF
2019 · W12GB @ SF8–37SF
2018 · W6SF @ GB30–33GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–GB
SFQ1 15:00645Field goal3–0
GBQ1 11:491360Missed field goal3–0
SFQ1 4:28419Punt3–0
GBQ1 2:1031Punt3–0
SFQ1 0:38631Field goal6–0
GBQ2 12:3431Punt6–0
SFQ2 10:473-1Punt6–0
GBQ2 9:24573Touchdown6–7
SFQ2 7:023-1Punt6–7
GBQ2 5:13655Touchdown6–14
SFQ2 1:46266Touchdown13–14
GBQ2 1:2630Punt13–14
SFQ2 0:53315End of half13–14
GBQ3 15:00579Touchdown13–21
SFQ3 11:52964Field goal16–21
GBQ3 6:39556Touchdown16–28
SFQ3 3:3730Punt16–28
GBQ3 3:01818Field goal16–31
SFQ4 13:5033Punt16–31
GBQ4 11:451769Field goal16–34
SFQ4 3:10928Turnover16–34
GBQ4 1:1300End of half16–34

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Smith10/2519411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Dixon9333.70
Brian Westbrook9313.40
Troy Smith3289.30
Delanie Walker155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis461261
Michael Crabtree38450
Delanie Walker23190
Anthony Dixon1140
Brian Westbrook0100
Ted Ginn0300
Josh Morgan0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3029830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks18734.10
Aaron Rodgers4399.80
Brandon Jackson4133.30
Matt Flynn2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings671222
Donald Driver48731
Brandon Jackson44630
Jordy Nelson22150
Korey Hall1190
James Jones2480
Andrew Quarless1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.26
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.43