Closing spread
GB -9
Total
41
Model margin
+3.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.076
- 38.8%Success rate45.9%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -4.51CPOE+5.31
- 33.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.30Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 11-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Smith | 10/25 | 194 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 126 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/30 | 298 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 7 | 122 | 2 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Korey Hall | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| James Jones | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.26
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.43