Closing spread
STL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 7/20 | 93 | 0 | 1 |
| John Skelton | 3/6 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Hall | 1/3 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.