Closing spread
STL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulJerome MurphyCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableMike KarneyRBGroin· Limited
- ProbableDarell ScottDTFoot· Full
- ProbableDonnie JonesPlf. calf· Full
- ProbableJustin KingCBShoulder· Full
Cardinals
- QuestionableCalais CampbellDEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableClark HaggansLBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDan WilliamsDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGregory TolerCBFoot· Limited
- ProbableMax HallQBIllness· DNP
- ProbableSteve BreastonWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableDarnell DockettDTShoulder· Full
- ProbableDominique Rodgers-CromartieCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableMatt WareSShoulder· Full
- ProbableParis LenonLBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 11:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 10:06 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LA | Q1 5:26 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| ARI | Q1 0:24 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–6 |
| LA | Q2 13:53 | 6 | 15 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| ARI | Q2 10:23 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 6–6 |
| LA | Q2 8:38 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 6–6 |
| ARI | Q2 7:06 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 6–6 |
| LA | Q2 3:15 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 9–6 |
| ARI | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 9–6 |
| ARI | Q3 13:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–6 |
| LA | Q3 12:22 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 16–6 |
| ARI | Q3 7:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 16–6 |
| LA | Q3 6:27 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 16–6 |
| ARI | Q3 3:54 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 16–6 |
| LA | Q3 3:04 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 19–6 |
| ARI | Q4 14:55 | 11 | 60 | Punt | 19–6 |
| LA | Q4 8:41 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 19–6 |
| ARI | Q4 6:36 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 19–6 |
| LA | Q4 5:17 | 10 | 51 | End of half | 19–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 7/20 | 93 | 0 | 1 |
| John Skelton | 3/6 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| Max Hall | 1/3 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.