2010 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

7·31

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYG -7

Total

43

Model margin

+4.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.006
  • 40.8%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.118
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -4.10CPOE+2.60
  • 29.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.81
  • 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00759Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 11:264-1Punt0–7
NYGQ1 9:23759Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 5:22746Missed field goal0–14
NYGQ1 1:5939Punt0–14
WASQ2 14:49732Punt0–14
NYGQ2 11:28977Turnover0–14
WASQ2 5:40429Turnover0–14
NYGQ2 4:19534Touchdown0–21
WASQ2 1:55729Punt0–21
NYGQ2 0:2200End of half0–21
WASQ3 15:0057Punt0–21
NYGQ3 13:0931Punt0–21
WASQ3 11:423-6Punt0–21
NYGQ3 10:0639Punt0–21
WASQ3 8:25211Turnover0–21
NYGQ3 7:32441Touchdown0–28
WASQ3 6:36472Touchdown7–28
NYGQ3 4:35620Punt7–28
WASQ3 1:16429Turnover7–28
NYGQ4 14:05531Punt7–28
WASQ4 11:133-8Punt7–28
NYGQ4 10:3533Field goal7–31
WASQ4 9:00428Turnover7–31
NYGQ4 7:0234Punt7–31
WASQ4 5:20323Turnover7–31
NYGQ4 4:27412Punt7–31
WASQ4 1:50947Turnover7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb26/4429612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Davis9404.40
Keiland Williams5295.80
Donovan McNabb252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong610971
Chris Cooley612610
James Davis33410
Roydell Williams34270
Santana Moss27240
Fred Davis11180
Mike Sellers23170
Logan Paulsen1190
Keiland Williams2220
Brandon Banks0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning15/2516101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs810312.92
Ahmad Bradshaw25973.92
Eli Manning1-1-1.00
D.J. Ware2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derek Hagan78650
Mario Manningham25360
Kevin Boss23280
Bear Pascoe23210
Ahmad Bradshaw1380
D.J. Ware1130
Brandon Jacobs0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.66