2010 · Week 13 · Division
Final
New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.006
- 40.8%Success rate44.3%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- -4.10CPOE+2.60
- 29.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.31Points / drive1.81
- 2.9%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/44 | 296 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Davis | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 6 | 10 | 97 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 6 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| James Davis | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 15/25 | 161 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 103 | 12.9 | 2 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Hagan | 7 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.66