2010 · Week 14

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

34·28

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

47

Model margin

+1.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTexans
  • +0.028EPA / play+0.107
  • 41.8%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.102EPA / rush+0.039
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.93CPOE+0.65
  • 38.4%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:211030Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:1135Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:121042Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 3:17848Missed field goal7–0
BALQ2 14:56617Punt7–0
HOUQ2 12:15525Punt7–0
BALQ2 8:38644Touchdown14–0
HOUQ2 5:2330Punt14–0
BALQ2 4:5534Punt14–0
HOUQ2 3:19311Turnover14–0
BALQ2 2:11533Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 1:37780Touchdown21–7
BALQ2 0:42312End of half27–7
BALQ3 15:0000Touchdown28–7
HOUQ3 14:451570Field goal28–10
BALQ3 7:0833Punt28–10
HOUQ3 5:041037Field goal28–13
BALQ3 0:36825Punt28–13
HOUQ4 11:031599Touchdown28–20
BALQ4 6:00631Punt28–20
HOUQ4 2:421195Touchdown28–28
BALQ4 0:2112End of half28–28
BALOT610Punt28–28
HOUOT20Opp touchdown34–28

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3323520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice19542.80
Willis McGahee471.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason610782
Ray Rice88660
Anquan Boldin38410
T.J. Houshmandzadeh23230
Ed Dickson1170
Donte' Stallworth0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub31/6239332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster201005.00
Matt Schaub188.00
Derrick Ward133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson9141402
Owen Daniels511910
Kevin Walter510570
Jacoby Jones59521
David Anderson34280
Arian Foster47250
Joel Dreessen0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.94