Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play+0.107
- 41.8%Success rate47.5%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.102EPA / rush+0.039
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.93CPOE+0.65
- 38.4%Third-down rate41.2%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.78Points / drive2.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/33 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 10 | 78 | 2 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 31/62 | 393 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 9 | 14 | 140 | 2 |
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 5 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 5 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.94