2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

7·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -9

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.042EPA / play+0.035
  • 44.3%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +0.88CPOE+3.44
  • 39.8%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.89
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:001045Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:58827Punt7–0
CINQ1 5:26627Punt7–0
PITQ1 2:0837Punt7–0
CINQ1 0:261044Punt7–0
PITQ2 9:45740Punt7–0
CINQ2 5:2422Opp touchdown7–7
CINQ2 4:373-2Punt7–7
PITQ2 2:211175Field goal7–10
CINQ2 0:2100End of half7–10
PITQ3 15:001064Field goal7–13
CINQ3 8:3455Punt7–13
PITQ3 6:491880Punt7–19
CINQ4 12:2710Opp touchdown7–20
CINQ4 12:21612Punt7–20
PITQ4 9:50645Field goal7–23
CINQ4 5:341158Turnover7–23
PITQ4 1:52416Punt7–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3217813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson8192.40
Bernard Scott4153.80
Carson Palmer200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson69710
Cedric Benson33260
Jordan Shipley34260
Terrell Owens16220
Brian Leonard22170
Reggie Kelly46150
Jermaine Gresham0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger21/3325800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall18663.70
Ben Roethlisberger3237.70
Mewelde Moore4184.50
Mike Wallace11212.00
Isaac Redman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward8101150
Mike Wallace59780
Antonio Brown34270
Antwaan Randle El22190
Rashard Mendenhall1290
Isaac Redman1160
Matt Spaeth1340
Emmanuel Sanders0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.36