Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play+0.035
- 44.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.5%
- +0.88CPOE+3.44
- 39.8%Third-down rate44.1%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.45Points / drive1.89
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/32 | 178 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 6 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/33 | 258 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 10 | 115 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 5 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.36