2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

3·7

Lions

Detroit

QB Drew Stanton

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

GB -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.043
  • 45.9%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +5.31CPOE-3.37
  • 41.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
GBQ1 14:03214Turnover0–0
DETQ1 13:15845Turnover0–0
GBQ1 8:5434Punt0–0
DETQ1 7:4638Punt0–0
GBQ1 5:493-3Punt0–0
DETQ1 4:12410Punt0–0
GBQ1 2:3927Turnover0–0
DETQ1 1:4738Punt0–0
GBQ2 15:0037Punt0–0
DETQ2 12:26616Turnover0–0
GBQ2 9:44626Punt0–0
DETQ2 6:43424Punt0–0
GBQ2 4:02520Punt0–0
DETQ2 1:4234Punt0–0
GBQ2 1:123-7Punt0–0
DETQ2 0:4425End of half0–0
GBQ3 15:00843Field goal3–0
DETQ3 10:5545Punt3–0
GBQ3 9:461181Turnover3–0
DETQ3 4:41761Missed field goal3–0
GBQ3 1:1735Punt3–0
DETQ4 14:321280Touchdown3–7
GBQ4 7:5551Punt3–7
DETQ4 5:2735Punt3–7
GBQ4 3:581060Turnover on downs3–7
DETQ4 0:5748Turnover on downs3–7

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Flynn15/2617701
Aaron Rodgers7/114601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers22512.50
Brandon Jackson7192.70
Matt Flynn3103.30
James Starks681.30
Dimitri Nance242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andrew Quarless56620
Greg Jennings49520
James Jones34300
Jordy Nelson22260
Dimitri Nance11140
Donald Driver28120
Brett Swain11120
Brandon Jackson3490
James Starks0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton10/2211712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris11514.60
Drew Stanton44411.00
Jahvid Best13382.90
Stefan Logan5306.00
Calvin Johnson11313.00
Nate Burleson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson18440
Bryant Johnson23210
Brandon Pettigrew23140
Will Heller11131
Nate Burleson11120
Maurice Morris1160
Jahvid Best1240
Tony Scheffler1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.01