Closing spread
GB -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.043
- 45.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.145
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.31CPOE-3.37
- 41.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.91Points / drive1.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Flynn | 15/26 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7/11 | 46 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James Starks | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Quarless | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| James Jones | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 10/22 | 117 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 11 | 51 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.01