Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.017
- 47.2%Success rate40.0%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.153
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.98CPOE-0.87
- 44.8%Third-down rate34.8%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.12Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 25/35 | 319 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javarris James | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Donald Brown | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 7 | 106 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 7 | 93 | 2 |
| Blair White | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 28/39 | 244 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 8 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 4 | 4 | 20 | 2 |
| Craig Stevens | 3 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.23