2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

30·28

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44

Model margin

+0.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.095EPA / play-0.017
  • 47.2%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.153
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +3.98CPOE-0.87
  • 44.8%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
INDQ1 15:001040Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:5649Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:021266Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 2:04632Turnover7–0
INDQ2 14:501156Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 10:17621Punt14–0
INDQ2 7:1339Punt14–0
TENQ2 5:57730Turnover14–0
INDQ2 2:33219Touchdown21–0
TENQ2 2:25755Touchdown21–7
INDQ2 0:49213End of half21–7
TENQ3 15:00762Touchdown21–14
INDQ3 11:09777Field goal24–14
TENQ3 7:2234Punt24–14
INDQ3 5:471564Field goal27–14
TENQ4 12:55866Touchdown27–21
INDQ4 7:5939Punt27–21
TENQ4 6:0739Punt27–21
INDQ4 4:07546Field goal30–21
TENQ4 2:551577Touchdown30–28

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning25/3531920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javarris James17492.91
Donald Brown15382.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne471060
Pierre Garcon67932
Blair White78520
Jacob Tamme45360
Donald Brown35240
Brody Eldridge1280
Javarris James0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins28/3924430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson221115.01
Javon Ringer2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Johnson88680
Nate Washington37480
Kenny Britt48390
Bo Scaife44202
Craig Stevens34201
Jared Cook1190
Javon Ringer1180
Justin Gage1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.23