Closing spread
SD -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. SD are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 7/17 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 2/3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.