Closing spread
SD -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SD perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- DoubtfulMatt CasselQBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableDonald WashingtonSAnkle· Full
- QuestionableKendrick LewisSAnkle· Full
Chargers
- OutPatrick CraytonWRWrist· DNP
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon SilerLBRib· Full
- QuestionableDarren SprolesRBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableLouis VasquezGNeck· Full
- QuestionableVincent JacksonWRCalf· Full
- ProbableAntonio GarayDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableStephen CooperLBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:43 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 5:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 3:55 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 13:59 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:51 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 6:47 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 3:38 | 9 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| KC | Q2 0:40 | 5 | 10 | End of half | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 50 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 8:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q3 6:48 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| KC | Q3 4:07 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q3 2:12 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–21 |
| KC | Q4 14:48 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q4 14:03 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 0–24 |
| KC | Q4 8:25 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q4 7:02 | 6 | 41 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| KC | Q4 3:15 | 7 | 15 | End of half | 0–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Croyle | 7/17 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 2/3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Palko | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.