Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 11/22 | 159 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 109 | 21.8 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.