Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- QuestionableChaz SchilensWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableChris JohnsonCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableHiram EugeneSRibs· Limited
- QuestionableJarvis MossDEHand· Limited
- QuestionableJohn HendersonDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNick MillerWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableNnamdi AsomughaCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSShoulder· Limited
- ProbableZach MillerTEFoot· Full
Jaguars
- OutCourtney GreeneSShoulder· DNP
- ProbableJustin DurantLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike Sims-WalkerWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableTerrence WheatleyCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableTyson AlualuDTKnee· Full
- ProbableVincent ManuwaiGFoot· Full
- ProbableZach MillerTEAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:35 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:01 | 3 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:28 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:30 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:56 | 7 | 10 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:56 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 0:32 | 7 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:56 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 6:25 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:10 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 12:47 | 3 | 78 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q3 11:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LV | Q3 10:23 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q3 8:17 | 3 | 82 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LV | Q3 6:44 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| JAX | Q3 6:28 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| LV | Q3 3:44 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 24–28 |
| JAX | Q3 2:41 | 10 | 66 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| LV | Q4 11:22 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| JAX | Q4 7:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–31 |
| LV | Q4 5:33 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| JAX | Q4 1:53 | 1 | 30 | Touchdown | 31–38 |
| LV | Q4 1:34 | 7 | 37 | End of half | 31–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 11/22 | 159 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 109 | 21.8 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 1 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.