Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jaguars
- OutDaryl SmithLBGroin· DNP
- OutDwight LowerySAnkle· DNP
- OutLaurent RobinsonWRConcussion· DNP
- ProbableDawan LandrySKnee· Full
- ProbableGeorge SelvieDEKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutKhalif BarnesTGroin· DNP
- OutRichard GordonTEHamstring· DNP
- OutShawntae SpencerCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableAlex ParsonsCShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEEar· Full
- ProbableDarren McFaddenRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableDenarius MooreWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableMike BrisielGConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:33 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:57 | 6 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 6:13 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 3:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q1 1:12 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 12:20 | 3 | 16 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q2 9:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–3 |
| LV | Q2 7:40 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| JAX | Q2 6:52 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| LV | Q2 5:57 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 17–3 |
| JAX | Q2 5:56 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 17–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:29 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| JAX | Q2 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–6 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–6 |
| JAX | Q3 13:31 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| LV | Q3 10:42 | 10 | 52 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| JAX | Q3 6:01 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 20–13 |
| LV | Q3 3:32 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 20–13 |
| JAX | Q3 1:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–13 |
| LV | Q4 14:51 | 1 | -8 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| JAX | Q4 14:43 | 3 | -3 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| LV | Q4 12:40 | 12 | 79 | Field goal | 23–16 |
| JAX | Q4 6:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 23–16 |
| LV | Q4 6:31 | 12 | 34 | Touchdown | 23–23 |
| JAX | Q4 3:34 | 5 | 42 | Punt | 23–23 |
| LV | Q4 1:43 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 23–23 |
| JAX | Q4 1:06 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–23 |
| LV | Q4 0:29 | 3 | 41 | Missed field goal | 23–23 |
| JAX | OT | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 23–23 |
| LV | OT | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 23–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 8/12 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 9/20 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 21 | 44 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.