Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Gabbert | 8/12 | 110 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 9/20 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 21 | 44 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 7 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Blackmon | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalen Parmele | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Elliott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.11
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.