Closing spread
JAX -14
Total
40
Model margin
+5.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:47 | 2 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 12:02 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 7:03 | 7 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 3:21 | 9 | 34 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 14:50 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| JAX | Q2 13:59 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 11:01 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–20 |
| JAX | Q2 9:16 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 9:12 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| JAX | Q2 7:39 | 3 | 34 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| LV | Q2 6:08 | 11 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 3–28 |
| JAX | Q2 1:48 | 9 | 50 | Turnover | 3–28 |
| LV | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -8 | End of half | 3–28 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–28 |
| LV | Q3 13:25 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–28 |
| JAX | Q3 10:09 | 7 | 100 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| LV | Q3 6:16 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–35 |
| JAX | Q3 3:54 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–35 |
| LV | Q3 1:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–35 |
| JAX | Q3 0:55 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 3–42 |
| LV | Q4 13:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–42 |
| JAX | Q4 11:13 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–42 |
| LV | Q4 7:26 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 3–42 |
| JAX | Q4 6:20 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 3–49 |
| LV | Q4 4:52 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 11–49 |
| JAX | Q4 0:06 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 11–49 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 11/18 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 5/8 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 111 | 15.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.