Closing spread
JAX -14
Total
40
Model margin
+5.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 11/18 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 5/8 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 111 | 15.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.