Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- DoubtfulVadal AlexanderGAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableBrynden TrawickSShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJon FelicianoGCalf· Limited
- QuestionableLatavius MurrayRBToe· Limited
- QuestionableMenelik WatsonTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTaiwan JonesRBKnee· Limited
Jaguars
- QuestionableJared OdrickDEHip· Limited
- QuestionableJulius ThomasTEAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKelvin BeachumTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableNeal SterlingWRFoot· Limited
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:26 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:21 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 9:06 | 10 | 39 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:40 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:07 | 3 | 3 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| JAX | Q2 14:52 | 5 | 45 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:38 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| JAX | Q2 5:32 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| LV | Q2 1:49 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–6 |
| JAX | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–6 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 20–9 |
| LV | Q3 12:11 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 20–9 |
| JAX | Q3 9:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–9 |
| LV | Q3 8:07 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 20–9 |
| JAX | Q3 6:37 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 20–9 |
| LV | Q3 4:45 | 4 | 7 | Field goal | 23–9 |
| JAX | Q3 2:28 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 23–9 |
| LV | Q3 0:17 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 26–9 |
| JAX | Q4 11:33 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 26–9 |
| LV | Q4 9:21 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 26–9 |
| JAX | Q4 7:15 | 13 | 98 | Touchdown | 26–16 |
| LV | Q4 4:12 | 8 | 68 | Touchdown | 33–16 |
| JAX | Q4 2:35 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 33–16 |
| LV | Q4 1:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 33–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/43 | 246 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.