Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 23/43 | 246 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 7 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.