Closing spread
LV -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.131
- 41.5%Success rate41.0%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.283
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.88CPOE-1.46
- 36.6%Third-down rate34.2%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.74Points / drive1.51
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. LV are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 25/39 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 9 | 13 | 132 | 1 |
| Parker Washington | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 24/38 | 257 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 11 | 13 | 99 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.84
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.83