2024 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

14·19

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.131
  • 41.5%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.283
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.88CPOE-1.46
  • 36.6%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.51
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. LV are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9JAX @ LV30–29JAX
2022 · W9LV @ JAX20–27JAX
2019 · W15JAX @ OAK20–16JAX
2016 · W7OAK @ JAX33–16RAIDERS
2013 · W2JAX @ OAK9–19RAIDERS
2012 · W7JAX @ OAK23–26RAIDERS
2010 · W14OAK @ JAX31–38JAX
2007 · W16OAK @ JAX11–49JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–LV
JAXQ1 15:00722Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:45530Punt0–0
JAXQ1 9:03626Punt0–0
LVQ1 7:0642Punt0–0
JAXQ1 4:04721Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 1:32670Touchdown7–7
JAXQ2 14:0549Punt7–7
LVQ2 12:39533Field goal7–10
JAXQ2 10:2842Punt7–10
LVQ2 9:01944Field goal7–13
JAXQ2 3:56110Turnover7–13
LVQ2 3:5054Punt7–13
JAXQ2 2:46956Turnover7–13
LVQ2 0:0900End of half7–13
LVQ3 15:0035Punt7–13
JAXQ3 13:57929Punt7–13
LVQ3 8:38720Punt7–13
JAXQ3 5:09514Punt7–13
LVQ3 3:2835Missed field goal7–13
JAXQ3 2:18364Touchdown14–13
LVQ3 0:541165Touchdown14–19
JAXQ4 11:2636Punt14–19
LVQ4 9:201142Punt14–19
JAXQ4 2:44949Turnover on downs14–19
LVQ4 0:5213End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones25/3924710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tank Bigsby12504.21
Travis Etienne9222.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.9131321
Parker Washington66540
Brenton Strange24220
Travis Etienne23150
D'Ernest Johnson1280
Luke Farrell2380
Josiah Deguara1140
Devin Duvernay1130
Tank Bigsby1110
Josh Reynolds0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell24/3825700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah7385.41
Alexander Mattison12272.31
Aidan O'Connell7121.70
Tre Tucker1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers1113990
Ameer Abdullah56470
Jakobi Meyers25410
Tre Tucker24410
Alexander Mattison47290
Terrace Marshall Jr.0100
Michael Mayer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.84
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.83