Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 25/38 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 14 | 93 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Stephen Burton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ebert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.