Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Jaguars
- OutBlaine GabbertQBright Thumb· DNP
- OutDwayne GratzCBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulMarcedes LewisTECalf· DNP
- QuestionableAlan BallCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableJ.T. ThomasLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableMike BrownWRBack· DNP
- QuestionableWill RackleyGKnee· DNP
- ProbableCecil ShortsWRGroin· Limited
- ProbableRoy MillerDTKnee· Limited
- ProbableUche NwaneriGKnee· Limited
- ProbableJordan TodmanRBShoulder· Full
Raiders
- OutDavid AusberryTEShoulder· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBGroin· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKright Calf· Limited
- ProbableTyvon BranchSShoulder· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:37 | 5 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:52 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:33 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:32 | 10 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:04 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 14:41 | 15 | 83 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 7:45 | 6 | 63 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 4:09 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:50 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| JAX | Q3 9:18 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q3 6:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–13 |
| JAX | Q3 4:51 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LV | Q3 2:45 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| JAX | Q4 13:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–16 |
| LV | Q4 12:23 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| JAX | Q4 6:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–19 |
| LV | Q4 4:58 | 1 | 26 | Turnover | 3–19 |
| JAX | Q4 4:47 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 9–19 |
| LV | Q4 2:53 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–19 |
| JAX | Q4 1:48 | 9 | 61 | End of half | 9–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 25/38 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 8 | 14 | 93 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Stephen Burton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Allen Reisner | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ebert | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.