Closing spread
OAK -7
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. OAK are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 17/29 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 4 | 8 | 49 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.