2022 · Week 9

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

20·27

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

LV -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapJaguars
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.045
  • 43.4%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.100
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -2.03CPOE+1.07
  • 39.7%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.07
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9JAX @ LV30–29JAX
2024 · W16JAX @ LV14–19RAIDERS
2019 · W15JAX @ OAK20–16JAX
2016 · W7OAK @ JAX33–16RAIDERS
2013 · W2JAX @ OAK9–19RAIDERS
2012 · W7JAX @ OAK23–26RAIDERS
2010 · W14OAK @ JAX31–38JAX
2007 · W16OAK @ JAX11–49JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–JAX
LVQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:31744Turnover0–0
LVQ1 10:131291Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 4:4534Punt7–0
LVQ1 3:04736Field goal10–0
JAXQ2 14:0836Punt10–0
LVQ2 12:33369Touchdown17–0
JAXQ2 10:511075Touchdown17–7
LVQ2 4:50955Field goal20–7
JAXQ2 0:45649Field goal20–10
JAXQ3 15:001055Touchdown20–17
LVQ3 10:15522Punt20–17
JAXQ3 7:021282Touchdown20–24
LVQ4 14:56937Punt20–24
JAXQ4 9:56521Punt20–24
LVQ4 7:2833Punt20–24
JAXQ4 6:19859Missed field goal20–24
LVQ4 3:0348Turnover on downs20–24
JAXQ4 2:2539Field goal20–27
LVQ4 1:0340Turnover20–27
JAXQ4 0:0800End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/3625920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17673.90
Brandon Bolden155.00
Zamir White1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10171462
Foster Moreau25420
Hunter Renfrow34260
Josh Jacobs33200
Mack Hollins24170
Ameer Abdullah1380

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence25/3123510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne281093.92
Trevor Lawrence6538.80
JaMycal Hasty362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk89761
Marvin Jones56480
Zay Jones55400
Dan Arnold11190
Travis Etienne22170
Luke Farrell11150
Evan Engram1280
Chris Manhertz1270
JaMycal Hasty1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.99