Closing spread
LV -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.045
- 43.4%Success rate46.6%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -2.03CPOE+1.07
- 39.7%Third-down rate42.0%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.10Points / drive2.07
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. JAX are 6-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/36 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 17 | 146 | 2 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 25/31 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 28 | 109 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 9 | 76 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.99