Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-4.9est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.192
- 44.5%Success rate38.6%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.304
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- -1.56CPOE-0.91
- 40.9%Third-down rate34.1%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.30Points / drive1.25
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 44.9 points. LV are 4-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/34 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 2 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 8 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Tim Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Austin Trammell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 29/39 | 284 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 12 | 13 | 127 | 3 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 5 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.2%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.88