2025 · Week 9

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

30·29

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-4.9est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.192
  • 44.5%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.304
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -1.56CPOE-0.91
  • 40.9%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.25
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. LV are 4-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16JAX @ LV14–19RAIDERS
2022 · W9LV @ JAX20–27JAX
2019 · W15JAX @ OAK20–16JAX
2016 · W7OAK @ JAX33–16RAIDERS
2013 · W2JAX @ OAK9–19RAIDERS
2012 · W7JAX @ OAK23–26RAIDERS
2010 · W14OAK @ JAX31–38JAX
2007 · W16OAK @ JAX11–49JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–LV
JAXQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:29522Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:311776Turnover0–0
LVQ1 1:041043Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ2 11:281237Punt0–0
LVQ2 5:391588Touchdown0–6
JAXQ2 0:35219Field goal3–6
LVQ3 15:0023Turnover3–6
JAXQ3 14:08617Field goal6–6
LVQ3 9:53727Field goal6–9
JAXQ3 6:261369Touchdown13–9
LVQ4 14:50954Touchdown13–16
JAXQ4 9:38959Touchdown20–16
LVQ4 4:06562Touchdown20–23
JAXQ4 1:52742Field goal23–23
LVQ4 0:161-5End of half23–23
JAXOT1044Touchdown30–23
LVOT937Touchdown30–29

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence23/3422001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne22843.80
Bhayshul Tuten9293.21
Trevor Lawrence9242.72
LeQuint Allen Jr.11010.00
Dyami Brown144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Parker Washington89900
Brian Thomas Jr.35550
Travis Etienne55310
Dyami Brown37250
Tim Jones11150
Hunter Long1360
LeQuint Allen Jr.1110
Austin Trammell0100
Bhayshul Tuten11-30

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith29/3928441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty13423.20
Geno Smith591.80
Brock Bowers166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers12131273
Ashton Jeanty55471
Tre Tucker34380
Michael Mayer37260
Jakobi Meyers46230
Raheem Mostert11140
Ian Thomas1190
Tyler Lockett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.5%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.2%

Expected total

41.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.88