2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

30·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.002
  • 44.2%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.048
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.085
  • 11.1%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +4.09CPOE+2.25
  • 39.7%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.67
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00673Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 11:471162Touchdown7–7
PHIQ1 5:3333Punt7–7
DALQ1 4:08522Punt7–7
PHIQ1 0:45417Punt7–7
DALQ2 13:3934Punt7–7
PHIQ2 12:0038Punt7–7
DALQ2 10:3036Punt7–7
PHIQ2 8:49646Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 5:49534Turnover14–7
PHIQ2 2:4041Turnover14–7
DALQ2 1:42641Field goal14–10
PHIQ2 0:0800End of half14–10
DALQ3 15:001147Field goal14–13
PHIQ3 10:18222Turnover14–13
DALQ3 9:18337Touchdown14–20
PHIQ3 7:44456Field goal17–20
DALQ3 5:0638Punt17–20
PHIQ3 3:15928Field goal20–20
DALQ4 13:5738Punt26–20
PHIQ4 11:43191Touchdown27–20
DALQ4 11:2410Turnover27–20
PHIQ4 11:11422Field goal30–20
DALQ4 8:17980Touchdown30–27
PHIQ4 4:22765End of half30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick16/2627022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy161499.30
Mike Vick8162.01
DeSean Jackson263.00
Jerome Harrison100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson482101
Jason Avant33180
Chad Hall23120
Jeremy Maclin13110
Riley Cooper11110
LeSean McCoy3340
Brent Celek0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna24/3524222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones13413.21
Jon Kitna3279.00
Miles Austin12626.00
Tashard Choice7162.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten77692
Felix Jones44420
Kevin Ogletree35340
Martellus Bennett45300
Roy Williams24230
Miles Austin25220
Tashard Choice11170
Sam Hurd1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.21