Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.002
- 44.2%Success rate43.2%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.048
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.085
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.09CPOE+2.25
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.4%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.97Points / drive1.67
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 16/26 | 270 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 149 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 8 | 210 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/35 | 242 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 26 | 26.0 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 7 | 7 | 69 | 2 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.21