Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.117EPA / play-0.055
- 38.3%Success rate38.8%
- -0.072EPA / dropback-0.024
- -0.194EPA / rush-0.102
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.80CPOE-4.51
- 37.0%Third-down rate33.2%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.36Points / drive1.30
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/42 | 285 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruvell Martin | 4 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Deon Butler | 5 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 7 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cameron Morrah | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 17/27 | 255 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 6 | 87 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 3 | 82 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.90