2010 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

21·40

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • -0.117EPA / play-0.055
  • 38.3%Success rate38.8%
  • -0.072EPA / dropback-0.024
  • -0.194EPA / rush-0.102
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.80CPOE-4.51
  • 37.0%Third-down rate33.2%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.36Points / drive1.30
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:00674Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 12:33512Punt0–7
SFQ1 9:573-8Punt0–7
SEAQ1 8:01757Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 4:14869Field goal7–10
SEAQ2 15:00421Turnover7–10
SFQ2 13:23714Field goal7–13
SEAQ2 10:3130Turnover7–13
SFQ2 8:59317Touchdown7–20
SEAQ2 8:04942Turnover on downs7–20
SFQ2 3:04368Touchdown7–27
SEAQ2 1:5030Turnover7–27
SFQ2 1:2637Field goal7–30
SEAQ3 15:0023Opp touchdown7–37
SEAQ3 14:11961Turnover7–37
SFQ3 10:2439Punt7–37
SEAQ3 8:153-1Punt7–37
SFQ3 7:13651Field goal13–40
SEAQ3 3:3200Touchdown14–40
SFQ3 3:1838Punt14–40
SEAQ3 1:21719Turnover on downs14–40
SFQ4 13:1639Punt14–40
SEAQ4 11:02667Missed field goal14–40
SFQ4 8:59619Punt14–40
SEAQ4 5:06880Touchdown21–40
SFQ4 1:5511End of half21–40

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck27/4228524

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch10292.90
Leon Washington4102.50
Matt Hasselbeck155.00
Justin Forsett351.70
Deon Butler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ruvell Martin46731
Deon Butler57681
Marshawn Lynch78370
Brandon Stokley34350
Golden Tate34290
Chris Baker12150
Leon Washington13130
Justin Forsett1390
Cameron Morrah1280

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith17/2725530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Dixon14604.30
Brian Westbrook9232.60
Alex Smith4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Westbrook66871
Josh Morgan33821
Vernon Davis57701
Anthony Dixon1180
Delanie Walker1370
Michael Crabtree1510
Ted Ginn0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.90