Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
47
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/40 | 221 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 5 | 6 | 70 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 13 | 46 | 2 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.