2010 · Week 14
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
41
Model margin
+0.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.079
- 42.0%Success rate40.8%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.148
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.31CPOE-4.10
- 42.5%Third-down rate29.2%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.88Points / drive1.31
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 15/25 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrelious Benn | 4 | 4 | 122 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 2 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 22/35 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 24 | 172 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 7 | 10 | 82 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Roydell Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.38