2010 · Week 14

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

17·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

41

Model margin

+0.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.079
  • 42.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.148
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.31CPOE-4.10
  • 42.5%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.31
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–WAS
TBQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:09773Missed field goal0–0
TBQ1 9:38539Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:48634Punt0–0
TBQ1 3:2433Punt0–0
WASQ1 2:221153Missed field goal0–0
TBQ2 11:16426Turnover0–0
WASQ2 9:17854Touchdown0–7
TBQ2 4:51468Field goal3–7
WASQ2 2:22558Field goal3–10
TBQ2 0:1000End of half3–10
WASQ3 15:0000Field goal3–10
TBQ3 14:55512Field goal6–10
WASQ3 11:4836Punt6–10
TBQ3 9:40944Field goal9–10
WASQ3 4:1139Punt9–10
TBQ3 2:32979Turnover9–10
WASQ4 13:1533Punt9–10
TBQ4 12:1037Punt9–10
WASQ4 10:21634Punt9–10
TBQ4 7:22780Touchdown17–10
WASQ4 3:471375Touchdown17–16
WASQ4 0:0900Touchdown17–16
TBQ4 0:0900End of half17–16
TBQ4 0:0900End of half17–16
TBQ4 0:0000End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman15/2526610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount15684.50
Arrelious Benn11717.00
Josh Freeman6101.70
Cadillac Williams362.00
Earnest Graham122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arrelious Benn441220
Kellen Winslow24521
Cadillac Williams44340
John Gilmore22270
Mike Williams15150
Sammie Stroughter11110
Earnest Graham1150
Micheal Spurlock0200
LeGarrette Blount0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb22/3522820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain241727.20
Keiland Williams4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss710821
Keiland Williams37600
Anthony Armstrong45300
Mike Sellers23280
Chris Cooley24220
Ryan Torain22100
Logan Paulsen1111
Roydell Williams0100
Fred Davis12-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.38