2024 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
42
Model margin
+3.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.133
- 48.1%Success rate49.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.027EPA / rush+0.012
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.57CPOE+3.56
- 45.9%Third-down rate50.8%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.78Points / drive2.71
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 17/24 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Brian Robinson | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 24/30 | 289 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 15 | 31 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Trask | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6 | 61 | 2 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74