2024 · Week 1

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

20·37

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -4

Total

42

Model margin

+3.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.133
  • 48.1%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.027EPA / rush+0.012
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.57CPOE+3.56
  • 45.9%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.71
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS
2010 · W14TB @ WAS17–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TB
TBQ1 15:00727Field goal0–3
WASQ1 11:3438Punt0–3
TBQ1 9:30851Field goal0–6
WASQ1 5:08951Missed field goal0–6
TBQ1 0:16873Touchdown0–13
WASQ2 10:53863Touchdown7–13
TBQ2 7:171254Field goal7–16
WASQ2 0:1600End of half7–16
WASQ3 15:001227Missed field goal7–16
TBQ3 9:21628Touchdown7–23
WASQ3 7:1135Punt7–23
TBQ3 6:203-2Punt7–23
WASQ3 4:48660Touchdown14–23
TBQ3 1:52572Touchdown14–30
WASQ4 14:55617Punt14–30
TBQ4 11:071291Touchdown14–37
WASQ4 3:291070Touchdown20–37
TBQ4 1:1200End of half20–37

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels17/2418400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels16885.52
Brian Robinson12403.31
Austin Ekeler2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler44520
Brian Robinson34490
Zach Ertz34280
Luke McCaffrey33180
Terry McLaurin24170
Olamide Zaccheaus13150
Jamison Crowder1150
John Bates0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield24/3028940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving9626.90
Rachaad White15312.10
Baker Mayfield3217.00
Kameron Johnson100.00
Kyle Trask2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.88831
Rachaad White66750
Mike Evans56612
Jalen McMillan13321
Trey Palmer12190
Bucky Irving23140
Cade Otton1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.74