2021 · Week 10

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

19·29

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -10

Total

51

Model margin

-3.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.143EPA / play-0.036
  • 49.9%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.018
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.50CPOE-0.08
  • 48.0%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 2.51Points / drive1.78
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS
2010 · W14TB @ WAS17–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–WAS
TBQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:33732Field goal0–3
TBQ1 9:5720Turnover0–3
WASQ1 9:46618Field goal0–6
TBQ1 5:56511Turnover0–6
WASQ1 3:201046Touchdown0–13
TBQ2 12:211268Field goal3–13
WASQ2 6:441059Field goal3–16
TBQ2 0:58750Field goal6–16
WASQ3 15:0033Punt6–16
TBQ3 13:3738Punt6–16
WASQ3 12:023-6Punt6–16
TBQ3 10:46443Touchdown13–16
WASQ3 8:46958Touchdown13–23
TBQ3 4:21725Punt13–23
WASQ4 14:54530Turnover13–23
TBQ4 12:27347Touchdown19–23
WASQ4 10:551980Touchdown19–29
TBQ4 0:29214End of half19–29

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3422022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette11474.30
Giovani Bernard144.00
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans23621
Chris Godwin Jr.78570
Leonard Fournette89450
Jaelon Darden12290
Tyler Johnson35170
Cameron Brate1361
Giovani Bernard1340

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke26/3225610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson24642.72
Taylor Heinicke3155.00
Jaret Patterson471.80
DeAndre Carter144.00
J.D. McKissic242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin68590
DeAndre Carter36561
J.D. McKissic44350
Ricky Seals-Jones34300
John Bates33250
Dax Milne22220
Antonio Gibson22140
Cam Sims22100
Adam Humphries1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.69