2021 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -10
Total
51
Model margin
-3.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play-0.036
- 49.9%Success rate44.8%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.018
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.50CPOE-0.08
- 48.0%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.51Points / drive1.78
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/34 | 220 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 2 | 3 | 62 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 26/32 | 256 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 24 | 64 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 3 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.69