2020 · WC
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -10
Total
45
Model margin
+2.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Buccaneers
- OutJeremiah LedbetterDTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableCarlton DavisCBGroin· Full
- QuestionableLeSean McCoyRBNot Injury Related· DNP
- QuestionableMike EvansWRKnee· Limited
- DNPNdamukong SuhDTNot Injury Related
- LimitedJason Pierre-PaulLBKnee
Commanders
- OutThomas DavisLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAlex SmithQBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableAntonio GibsonRBToe· Limited
- QuestionableKevin Pierre-LouisLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTerry McLaurinWRAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.051
- 46.9%Success rate42.1%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.063
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.030
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.10CPOE-1.32
- 44.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.68Points / drive1.76
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 10:11 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:14 | 5 | 39 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 4:57 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 9–0 |
| WAS | Q1 2:51 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 9–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:59 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 15–7 |
| WAS | Q2 10:03 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 15–7 |
| TB | Q2 6:10 | 9 | 82 | Field goal | 18–7 |
| WAS | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 18–7 |
| TB | Q2 1:22 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 18–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:30 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 18–7 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 18–10 |
| TB | Q3 11:46 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 18–10 |
| WAS | Q3 10:53 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 18–10 |
| TB | Q3 8:53 | 7 | 41 | Turnover | 18–10 |
| WAS | Q3 5:53 | 7 | 47 | Touchdown | 18–16 |
| TB | Q3 2:14 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 21–16 |
| WAS | Q4 13:32 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–16 |
| TB | Q4 12:33 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–16 |
| WAS | Q4 9:11 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| TB | Q4 4:51 | 6 | 58 | Field goal | 31–23 |
| WAS | Q4 2:49 | 6 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 31–23 |
| TB | Q4 1:51 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/40 | 381 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 19 | 93 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 10 | 119 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 26/44 | 306 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Sims | 7 | 13 | 104 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 9 | 74 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.17
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90