2018 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
51
Model margin
+3.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.045
- 42.3%Success rate44.9%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.229
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.01CPOE+3.11
- 36.2%Third-down rate46.7%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.44Points / drive1.93
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/27 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 68 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harris | 5 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 4 | 4 | 46 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/41 | 406 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Shaun Wilson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 7 | 103 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 8 | 8 | 102 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Shaun Wilson | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.69