2014 · Week 11

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

27·7

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.052
  • 38.5%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.031
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -1.50CPOE+1.13
  • 36.6%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.39
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS
2010 · W14TB @ WAS17–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–WAS
WASQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
TBQ1 14:51715Field goal3–0
WASQ1 11:10630Punt3–0
TBQ1 8:41632Punt3–0
WASQ1 5:2136Opp touchdown10–0
WASQ1 3:56943Punt10–0
WASQ2 13:316-3Missed field goal10–0
TBQ2 10:14653Field goal13–0
WASQ2 7:39740Turnover13–0
TBQ2 3:13524Punt13–0
WASQ2 1:06579Touchdown13–7
TBQ2 0:1100End of half13–7
TBQ3 15:00617Punt13–7
WASQ3 11:511026Missed field goal13–7
TBQ3 6:51460Touchdown20–7
WASQ3 4:36625Punt20–7
TBQ3 1:556100Touchdown27–7
WASQ4 14:07824Punt27–7
TBQ4 9:28928Punt27–7
WASQ4 3:451152End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown15/2328820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charles Sims13362.80
Josh McCown382.70
Bobby Rainey540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans792092
Vincent Jackson34430
Brandon Myers11210
Charles Sims3480
Austin Seferian-Jenkins1170
Louis Murphy0300
Bobby Rainey0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III23/3220712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris20964.80
Robert Griffin III6416.80
Silas Redd4164.00
DeSean Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roy Helu66571
Alfred Morris23360
DeSean Jackson46350
Jordan Reed23220
Andre Roberts22210
Niles Paul35170
Silas Redd2390
Pierre Garcon1260
Leonard Hankerson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.31