2014 · Week 11
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.052
- 38.5%Success rate41.7%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- -1.50CPOE+1.13
- 36.6%Third-down rate31.3%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.33Points / drive1.39
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 15/23 | 288 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Sims | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 9 | 209 | 2 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 23/32 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 20 | 96 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Helu | 6 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.31