2012 · Week 4
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.018
- 46.7%Success rate41.0%
- +0.233EPA / dropback+0.053
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.038
- 12.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.84CPOE-4.01
- 35.5%Third-down rate35.9%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.11Points / drive1.74
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 26/35 | 323 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 21 | 113 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Davis | 4 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 7 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 24/39 | 299 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 115 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 6 | 11 | 100 | 1 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.08