2012 · Week 4

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

24·22

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TB -1.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.137EPA / play+0.018
  • 46.7%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback+0.053
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.038
  • 12.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.84CPOE-4.01
  • 35.5%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.74
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsWAS @ TB23–20WAS
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2010 · W14TB @ WAS17–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TB
TBQ1 15:00730Punt0–0
WASQ1 10:5443Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:12748Field goal0–3
WASQ1 4:42884Touchdown7–3
TBQ2 15:0035Punt7–3
WASQ2 13:59620Missed field goal7–3
TBQ2 11:5925Turnover7–3
WASQ2 11:09730Touchdown14–3
TBQ2 7:263-5Punt14–3
WASQ2 6:03260Touchdown21–3
TBQ2 5:15841Field goal21–6
WASQ2 1:55416Punt21–6
TBQ2 0:4038Punt21–6
WASQ2 0:14219Missed field goal21–6
WASQ3 15:00863Punt21–6
TBQ3 11:21527Punt21–6
WASQ3 9:461028Punt21–6
TBQ3 4:24580Touchdown21–13
WASQ3 1:56967Missed field goal21–13
TBQ4 12:13579Touchdown21–19
WASQ4 9:41414Punt21–19
TBQ4 8:14519Punt21–19
WASQ4 4:4339Punt21–19
TBQ4 3:38636Field goal21–22
WASQ4 1:42561Field goal24–22
TBQ4 0:0300End of half24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III26/3532300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris211135.41
Robert Griffin III8364.51
Evan Royster242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Fred Davis44700
Josh Morgan45620
Leonard Hankerson711570
Santana Moss34330
Niles Paul12300
Pierre Garcon11200
Evan Royster33150
Alfred Morris12-40

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman24/3929911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin8334.10
D.J. Ware11717.00
LeGarrette Blount6172.81
Josh Freeman284.00
Arrelious Benn155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams481150
Vincent Jackson6111001
Tiquan Underwood33390
Arrelious Benn34180
Dallas Clark34150
Doug Martin2590
Luke Stocker1250
D.J. Ware22-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

47.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.08