2024 · WC
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.133
- 48.1%Success rate49.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.027EPA / rush+0.012
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +4.57CPOE+3.56
- 45.9%Third-down rate50.8%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.78Points / drive2.71
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/35 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/18 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74