2024 · WC

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

23·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.133
  • 48.1%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.027EPA / rush+0.012
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +4.57CPOE+3.56
  • 45.9%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.71
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. TB are 7-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1WAS @ TB20–37TB
2021 · W10TB @ WAS19–29WAS
2020 · playoffsTB @ WAS31–23TB
2018 · W10WAS @ TB16–3WAS
2015 · W7TB @ WAS30–31WAS
2014 · W11TB @ WAS27–7TB
2012 · W4WAS @ TB24–22WAS
2010 · W14TB @ WAS17–16TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–TB
TBQ1 15:00738Field goal0–3
WASQ1 11:35747Turnover on downs0–3
TBQ1 7:46631Punt0–3
WASQ1 3:341792Touchdown7–3
TBQ2 9:26416Punt7–3
WASQ2 7:201132Field goal10–3
TBQ2 1:52863Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 0:1000End of half10–10
WASQ3 15:00966Field goal13–10
TBQ3 10:301164Touchdown13–17
WASQ3 4:311550Turnover on downs13–17
TBQ4 14:01411Turnover13–17
WASQ4 11:56413Touchdown20–17
TBQ4 9:46761Field goal20–20
WASQ4 4:41855Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels24/3526820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels13362.80
Austin Ekeler8273.40
Brian Robinson10161.60
Marcus Mariota122.00
Jeremy McNichols111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin710891
Dyami Brown55891
Austin Ekeler34260
Zach Ertz24230
Brian Robinson45220
Olamide Zaccheaus33190
John Bates0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield15/1818520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving17774.50
Baker Mayfield7233.30
Rachaad White111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans77921
Jalen McMillan24410
Cade Otton22320
Rachaad White22140
Bucky Irving2261

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.74