2015 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.022
- 44.4%Success rate42.6%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.191
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.02CPOE+5.62
- 41.4%Third-down rate43.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.77Points / drive1.81
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/29 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 19 | 136 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 12 | 164 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Donteea Dye | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 33/40 | 317 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 11 | 13 | 72 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.87