NFL Intelligence

2015 · Week 7

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

30·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

Model margin

+3.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

OutAustin Seferian-JenkinsTEShoulder· DNP
OutReid FragelTConcussion· DNP
OutTony McDanielDTGroin· DNP
QuestionableBruce CarterLBThigh· Limited
QuestionableEvan SmithCAnkle· Limited
QuestionableLogan MankinsGGroin· Limited
QuestionableRussell ShepardWRHamstring· Full
ProbableGerald McCoyDTShoulder· Limited
ProbableChris ConteSAnkle· Full
ProbableGeorge JohnsonDERibs· Full
ProbableJohnthan BanksCBKnee· Full
ProbableLuke StockerTEHip· Full

Commanders

OutChris CulliverCBKnee· DNP
OutDeAngelo HallCBToe· DNP
OutDeSean JacksonWRHamstring· DNP
OutKory LichtensteigerCNeck· DNP
DoubtfulChris ThompsonRBBack· DNP
QuestionableJason HatcherDEKnee· Limited
QuestionableJordan ReedTEConcussion· Limited
QuestionableKeenan RobinsonLBHeel· Full
QuestionableStephen PaeaDEBack· Limited
QuestionableTrent WilliamsTConcussion· Limited
ProbableAndre RobertsWRThumb· Full
ProbableBashaud BreelandCBKnee· Full
ProbableMatt JonesRBToe· Full
ProbableTrenton RobinsonSAnkle· Full
ProbableTy NsekheTFoot· Full

Win probability

Commanders
Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapCommanders

+0.008EPA / play+0.022
44.4%Success rate42.6%
+0.106EPA / dropback+0.166
-0.141EPA / rush-0.191
9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
-0.02CPOE+5.62
41.4%Third-down rate43.9%
57.1%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
1.77Points / drive1.81
2.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 9–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.5 points. WAS are 9-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2024 · playoffs	WAS @ TB	23–20	WAS
2024 · W1	WAS @ TB	20–37	TB
2021 · W10	TB @ WAS	19–29	WAS
2020 · playoffs	TB @ WAS	31–23	TB
2018 · W10	WAS @ TB	16–3	WAS
2014 · W11	TB @ WAS	27–7	TB
2012 · W4	WAS @ TB	24–22	WAS
2010 · W14	TB @ WAS	17–16	TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	TB–WAS
WAS	Q1 15:00	3	7	Punt	0–0
TB	Q1 13:06	3	64	Touchdown	7–0
WAS	Q1 11:47	5	10	Punt	7–0
TB	Q1 9:32	7	76	Field goal	10–0
WAS	Q1 5:06	3	4	Punt	10–0
TB	Q1 3:34	15	97	Touchdown	17–0
WAS	Q2 11:34	6	23	Opp touchdown	24–0
WAS	Q2 8:19	7	59	Touchdown	24–7
TB	Q2 4:26	3	2	Punt	24–7
WAS	Q2 2:48	5	20	Punt	24–7
TB	Q2 1:20	5	25	End of half	24–7
TB	Q3 15:00	5	20	Punt	24–7
WAS	Q3 12:54	5	49	Touchdown	24–14
TB	Q3 11:10	0	0	Touchdown	24–14
WAS	Q3 11:08	8	55	Touchdown	24–21
TB	Q3 6:56	13	73	Field goal	27–21
WAS	Q4 13:51	10	53	Field goal	27–24
TB	Q4 7:29	10	91	Field goal	30–24
WAS	Q4 2:24	11	76	Touchdown	30–31
TB	Q4 0:24	3	31	Turnover	30–31
WAS	Q4 0:05	0	0	End of half	30–31

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Jameis Winston	21/29	297	2	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Doug Martin	19	136	7.2
Charles Sims	10	49	4.9
Jameis Winston	1	5	5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Mike Evans	8	12	164	1
Doug Martin	3	3	35	0
Louis Murphy	1	1	29	0
Luke Stocker	3	4	22	0
Charles Sims	2	3	17	0
Vincent Jackson	1	2	13	0
Donteea Dye	1	1	7	1
Cameron Brate	1	1	6	0
Bobby Rainey	1	1	4	0
Brandon Myers	0	1	0	0

Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Kirk Cousins	33/40	317	3	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Matt Jones	9	29	3.2	0
Kirk Cousins	3	15	5.0	1
Alfred Morris	6	5	0.8	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Jordan Reed	11	13	72	2
Pierre Garcon	5	6	55	0
Ryan Grant	3	3	54	1
Andre Roberts	3	6	49	0
Jamison Crowder	5	5	48	0
Matt Jones	3	4	22	0
Derek Carrier	2	2	15	0
Alfred Morris	1	1	2	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
Home-field advantage+2.49
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential-0.56
Expected margin+3.87