2010 · Week 15

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

12·19

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.220EPA / play-0.249
  • 37.1%Success rate33.5%
  • -0.248EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.215
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -9.59CPOE-7.94
  • 27.4%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.06Points / drive0.77
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CAR
ARIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:49557Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 10:22620Punt0–3
CARQ1 6:561380Field goal0–6
ARIQ1 0:1432Punt0–6
CARQ2 14:41515Punt0–6
ARIQ2 12:13618Turnover0–12
CARQ2 8:49116Touchdown0–13
ARIQ2 8:4236Punt0–13
CARQ2 7:0536Punt0–13
ARIQ2 4:551146Field goal3–13
CARQ2 0:3612End of half3–13
CARQ3 15:00531Field goal3–16
ARIQ3 12:124-1Turnover3–16
CARQ3 10:393-7Punt3–16
ARIQ3 8:3033Punt3–16
CARQ3 6:561131Field goal3–19
ARIQ3 0:2730Punt3–19
CARQ4 14:071022Turnover3–19
ARIQ4 7:53769Touchdown9–19
CARQ4 5:41952Turnover on downs9–19
ARIQ4 1:49547Field goal12–19
CARQ4 0:5400End of half12–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton17/3319601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower6162.70
Chris Wells8111.40
John Skelton2105.00
LaRod Stephens-Howling166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald9101250
Steve Breaston25420
Tim Hightower34120
Early Doucet1480
Stephen Spach1470
LaRod Stephens-Howling1220
Chris Wells0100
Andre Roberts0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen13/1914110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart271375.10
Mike Goodson10212.10
Jimmy Clausen5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell33330
David Gettis33320
Mike Goodson23270
Steve Smith26220
Jeff King11161
Dante Rosario1190
Jonathan Stewart1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.24