Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.220EPA / play-0.249
- 37.1%Success rate33.5%
- -0.248EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.215
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- -9.59CPOE-7.94
- 27.4%Third-down rate30.0%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.06Points / drive0.77
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 17/33 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 10 | 125 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 13/19 | 141 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 27 | 137 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24