Closing spread
CHI -5.5
Total
34
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.112
- 39.0%Success rate42.3%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.121
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.87CPOE-2.30
- 33.1%Third-down rate34.1%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.43Points / drive1.25
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 14/24 | 194 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Matt Forte | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Webb | 15/26 | 129 | 0 | 2 |
| Brett Favre | 5/7 | 63 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toby Gerhart | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 5 | 7 | 72 | 1 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.22