2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

40·14

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 23°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

CHI -5.5

Total

34

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.112
  • 39.0%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.121
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.87CPOE-2.30
  • 33.1%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.25
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00660Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:22622Punt0–7
MINQ1 8:1740Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 6:4333Field goal3–7
MINQ1 5:18412Punt3–7
CHIQ1 2:50367Touchdown10–7
MINQ1 1:55430Punt10–7
CHIQ2 14:1537Punt10–7
MINQ2 12:4846Punt10–7
CHIQ2 11:11870Touchdown17–7
MINQ2 6:5439Punt17–7
CHIQ2 5:00838Turnover17–7
MINQ2 1:37823Turnover on downs17–7
CHIQ3 15:0031Field goal20–7
MINQ3 14:063-3Opp touchdown27–7
MINQ3 12:06526Touchdown27–14
CHIQ3 9:47753Touchdown34–14
MINQ3 5:1631Punt34–14
CHIQ3 4:17714Field goal37–14
MINQ3 0:38417Turnover37–14
CHIQ4 14:133-4Punt37–14
MINQ4 12:12415Turnover37–14
CHIQ4 10:29615Field goal40–14
MINQ4 7:031261Turnover40–14
CHIQ4 2:5848Turnover on downs40–14
MINQ4 1:10216Turnover40–14
CHIQ4 0:3900End of half40–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler14/2419431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17925.40
Garrett Wolfe482.00
Chester Taylor1150.50
Jay Cutler1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox27781
Earl Bennett34370
Greg Olsen44280
Devin Hester23231
Devin Aromashodu11130
Rashied Davis1291
Matt Forte1160

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Webb15/2612902
Brett Favre5/76311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Toby Gerhart16774.80
Joe Webb6386.31
Brett Favre100.00
Percy Harvin1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin57721
Visanthe Shiancoe69410
Sidney Rice25230
Greg Camarillo12180
Toby Gerhart34180
Lorenzo Booker22140
Jimmy Kleinsasser1160
Bernard Berrian0200
Hank Baskett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

41.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.18
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.22