2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

17·19

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 28°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.042
  • 40.5%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.191
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.13CPOE+0.88
  • 37.8%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.45
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00760Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 12:08822Turnover on downs7–0
CLEQ1 8:07831Punt7–0
CINQ1 4:071086Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 12:5234Punt7–7
CINQ2 11:461383Field goal7–10
CLEQ2 4:19831Punt7–10
CINQ2 0:1000End of half7–10
CINQ3 15:00849Field goal7–13
CLEQ3 11:1135Punt7–13
CINQ3 8:59937Field goal7–16
CLEQ3 3:33861Field goal10–16
CINQ4 14:06877Field goal10–19
CLEQ4 9:583-2Punt10–19
CINQ4 8:40735Punt10–19
CLEQ4 4:06588Touchdown17–19
CINQ4 2:13311End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy19/2524320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis14594.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson77920
Brian Robiskie56821
Robert Royal22291
Peyton Hillis23230
Mohamed Massaquoi13110
Josh Cribbs1240
Chansi Stuckey1220

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer14/2320900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson311504.81
Bernard Scott8405.00
Carson Palmer5-1-0.20
Brian Leonard1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Caldwell46890
Chad Johnson23360
Jerome Simpson23300
Brian Leonard11200
Jordan Shipley23140
Quan Cosby11110
Jermaine Gresham1360
Reggie Kelly1130
Cedric Benson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.12