Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.042
- 40.5%Success rate44.3%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.191
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.13CPOE+0.88
- 37.8%Third-down rate39.8%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.45
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 19/25 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 7 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 5 | 6 | 82 | 1 |
| Robert Royal | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 14/23 | 209 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 31 | 150 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Caldwell | 4 | 6 | 89 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12