Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutBrian DawkinsSKnee· DNP
- OutDemaryius ThomasWRAnkle· Limited
- OutMatt PraterKright Groin· DNP
- QuestionableDarcel McBathSQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableDavid BrutonSRibs· Limited
- QuestionableKyle OrtonQBRibs· Limited
- DNPJamal WilliamsDTNot Injury Related
- ProbableBrandon LloydWRCalf· Full
- ProbableEric DeckerWRFoot· Full
- ProbableKevin AlexanderLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMarcus ThomasDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableSpencer LarsenRBHamstring· Full
Raiders
- QuestionableHiram EugeneSRibs· Limited
- QuestionableJohnnie Lee HigginsWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNick MillerWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNnamdi AsomughaCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRolando McClainLBFoot· DNP
- ProbableChris JohnsonCBGroin· Full
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTBack· Full
- ProbableKyle BollerQBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableRichard SeymourDTKnee· Full
- ProbableTravis GoethelLBKnee· Full
- ProbableTyvon BranchSShoulder· Full
- ProbableZach MillerTEFoot· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q1 13:26 | 1 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 13:14 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 12:15 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DEN | Q1 11:36 | 4 | 41 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:40 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:22 | 2 | 32 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:38 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DEN | Q1 3:20 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 14:09 | 9 | 46 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| DEN | Q2 9:36 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:09 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 17–14 |
| DEN | Q2 5:25 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 3:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:23 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q2 1:02 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 17–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DEN | Q3 10:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LV | Q3 8:57 | 4 | 6 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q3 7:27 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| LV | Q3 5:03 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| DEN | Q3 1:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–29 |
| LV | Q4 14:44 | 1 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| DEN | Q4 14:32 | 8 | 49 | Field goal | 23–30 |
| LV | Q4 10:04 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 23–30 |
| DEN | Q4 8:21 | 2 | -6 | Safety | 23–32 |
| LV | Q4 7:37 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 23–39 |
| DEN | Q4 3:37 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 23–39 |
| LV | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 23–39 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 8/16 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Richard Quinn | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.