Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 8/16 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tebow | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Richard Quinn | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.