2010 · Week 15
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.046
- 40.5%Success rate42.0%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
- -3.37CPOE+2.31
- 40.4%Third-down rate42.5%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 23/37 | 252 | 1 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 15 | 109 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 10 | 12 | 152 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 1 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 21/32 | 251 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 15 | 110 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Purvis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.58