2010 · Week 15

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Drew Stanton

23·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+4.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.046
  • 40.5%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.133
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -3.37CPOE+2.31
  • 40.4%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.88
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–TB
TBQ1 15:00834Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:44623Punt0–0
TBQ1 7:1832Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:56768Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 2:06980Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 12:29629Punt7–7
TBQ2 8:26887Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 3:411071Field goal10–14
TBQ2 0:55741End of half10–14
DETQ3 15:00958Touchdown17–14
TBQ3 10:16732Punt17–14
DETQ3 5:21832Punt17–14
TBQ3 0:561670Field goal17–17
DETQ4 8:51531Punt17–17
TBQ4 5:481057Field goal17–20
DETQ4 1:39858Field goal20–20
DETOT863Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton23/3725210
Stefan Logan0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris151097.31
Nate Burleson12525.00
Drew Stanton22412.00
Jahvid Best6122.00
Stefan Logan4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson10121520
Nate Burleson46281
Brandon Pettigrew23250
Bryant Johnson16190
Tony Scheffler34180
Maurice Morris34100
Jahvid Best0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman21/3225110
Josh Johnson1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount151107.31
Cadillac Williams7385.40
Josh Freeman5295.80
Earnest Graham1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams611961
Kellen Winslow46460
Arrelious Benn34340
Cadillac Williams23260
Earnest Graham33210
Micheal Spurlock11190
John Gilmore1290
Sammie Stroughter1210
Ryan Purvis1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.48
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.58