Closing spread
TEN -2
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.017
- 47.5%Success rate40.0%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.083
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.153
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.65CPOE-0.87
- 41.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.09Points / drive1.83
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 24–24 since 1999
HOU have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. TEN are 19-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 35/54 | 325 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 11 | 15 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Walter | 7 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 12 | 58 | 1 |
| Jacoby Jones | 7 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/24 | 237 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 24 | 130 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Javon Ringer | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 6 | 9 | 128 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
48.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+1.42