2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

17·31

Titans

Tennessee

QB Kerry Collins

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -2

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapTitans
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.017
  • 47.5%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.083
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.153
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.65CPOE-0.87
  • 41.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.83
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 25–24 since 1999

HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. TEN are 19-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5HOU @ TEN26–3HOU
2025 · W11HOU @ TEN16–13HOU
2025 · W4TEN @ HOU0–26HOU
2024 · W18HOU @ TEN23–14HOU
2024 · W12TEN @ HOU32–27TEN
2023 · W17TEN @ HOU3–26HOU
2023 · W15HOU @ TEN19–16HOU
2022 · W16HOU @ TEN19–14HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–TEN
TENQ1 15:00955Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 10:2045Turnover on downs0–7
TENQ1 8:51558Touchdown0–14
HOUQ1 6:3831Punt0–14
TENQ1 4:33644Touchdown0–21
HOUQ1 2:32626Punt0–21
TENQ2 13:5759Punt0–21
HOUQ2 11:121138Field goal3–21
TENQ2 5:45818Punt3–21
HOUQ2 1:58725Turnover3–21
TENQ2 0:4748Field goal3–24
HOUQ3 15:001066Touchdown10–24
TENQ3 9:17543Turnover10–24
HOUQ3 7:02742Punt10–24
TENQ3 3:14680Touchdown10–31
HOUQ3 0:28712Punt10–31
TENQ4 12:3334Punt10–31
HOUQ4 10:551567Touchdown17–31
TENQ4 6:2836Punt17–31
HOUQ4 5:221141Turnover on downs17–31
TENQ4 3:33436End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub35/5432521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Ward6152.50
Arian Foster11151.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Walter710791
Andre Johnson612581
Jacoby Jones79500
Arian Foster67460
Owen Daniels47450
Joel Dreessen45360
Derrick Ward13110
Dorin Dickerson0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins14/2423721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson241305.41
Javon Ringer4194.81
Kerry Collins2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt691280
Jared Cook33420
Damian Williams11390
Nate Washington24201
Chris Johnson1270
Justin Gage1211
Craig Stevens0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

48.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+1.42