Closing spread
IND -4
Total
48
Model margin
+4.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play+0.095
- 44.9%Success rate47.2%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.182
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.6%Explosive rate6.7%
- +1.85CPOE+3.98
- 39.5%Third-down rate44.8%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.86Points / drive2.12
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. IND are 17-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 24/38 | 294 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 6 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 4 | 8 | 42 | 2 |
| Jason Hill | 2 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/39 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 14 | 129 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 26 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 8 | 10 | 87 | 2 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Blair White | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.75