2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

24·34

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

48

Model margin

+4.8est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapColts
  • +0.019EPA / play+0.095
  • 44.9%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.182
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.067
  • 10.6%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +1.85CPOE+3.98
  • 39.5%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.12
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. IND are 17-32-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–IND
INDQ1 15:00882Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 11:2130Punt0–7
INDQ1 9:1939Punt0–7
JAXQ1 7:541467Field goal3–7
INDQ2 14:131197Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 9:5179Punt3–14
INDQ2 6:39623Opp touchdown10–14
INDQ2 3:511041Punt10–14
JAXQ2 0:5328End of half10–14
JAXQ3 15:0049Turnover on downs10–14
INDQ3 13:22243Touchdown10–21
JAXQ3 12:1930Punt10–21
INDQ3 11:0144Field goal10–21
INDQ3 9:3621Field goal10–24
JAXQ3 8:47887Touchdown17–24
INDQ3 3:54417Punt17–24
JAXQ3 1:37337Turnover17–24
INDQ4 15:00837Field goal17–27
JAXQ4 9:57621Punt17–27
INDQ4 7:03622Punt17–27
JAXQ4 3:21751Touchdown24–33
INDQ4 1:5400Touchdown24–34
JAXQ4 1:47867End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard24/3829421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew15463.10
Rashad Jennings3134.30
David Garrard482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashad Jennings78640
Marcedes Lewis67630
Mike Thomas35630
Mike Sims-Walker48422
Jason Hill25400
Maurice Jones-Drew23220
Kassim Osgood0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning29/3922920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown141299.21
Dominic Rhodes9262.90
Javarris James100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie810872
Pierre Garcon56440
Reggie Wayne59340
Jacob Tamme77340
Blair White12160
Gijon Robinson1160
Dominic Rhodes1340
Donald Brown1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.75