2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

38·31

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.078EPA / play-0.006
  • 44.2%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.104EPA / dropback+0.081
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.118
  • 11.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +4.09CPOE+2.60
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.81
  • 2.2%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:2020Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 12:5850Punt0–0
PHIQ1 10:21531Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:53971Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 3:3638Punt0–7
NYGQ1 1:50413Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 0:14414Field goal3–7
NYGQ2 13:02873Touchdown3–14
PHIQ2 8:1769Punt3–14
NYGQ2 4:111155Field goal3–17
PHIQ2 0:48213Turnover3–23
NYGQ2 0:0918Touchdown3–24
PHIQ2 0:0500End of half3–24
PHIQ3 15:003-2Punt3–24
NYGQ3 13:4238Punt3–24
PHIQ3 11:341161Punt3–24
NYGQ3 5:5028Turnover3–24
PHIQ3 5:00325Touchdown10–24
NYGQ3 3:56520Punt10–24
PHIQ3 1:36515Punt10–24
NYGQ4 14:37441Punt10–24
PHIQ4 12:48130Turnover10–24
NYGQ4 12:34742Touchdown10–31
PHIQ4 8:17275Touchdown17–31
NYGQ4 7:2800Touchdown17–31
PHIQ4 7:27652Touchdown24–31
NYGQ4 5:28730Punt24–31
PHIQ4 3:01888Touchdown31–31
NYGQ4 1:163-7Opp touchdown38–31

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick21/3524231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick1013013.01
LeSean McCoy10646.40
Jerome Harrison133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brent Celek23721
Jeremy Maclin711592
DeSean Jackson38520
Jason Avant35350
LeSean McCoy46130
Jerome Harrison1170
Clay Harbor1140

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/3928941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw19663.50
Brandon Jacobs12342.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham8121132
Hakeem Nicks69631
Kevin Boss36591
Derek Hagan36360
Ahmad Bradshaw22140
Travis Beckum1140
Brandon Jacobs0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.99