Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.078EPA / play-0.006
- 44.2%Success rate44.3%
- +0.104EPA / dropback+0.081
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.118
- 11.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +4.09CPOE+2.60
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.0%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.97Points / drive1.81
- 2.2%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 21/35 | 242 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10 | 130 | 13.0 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 11 | 59 | 2 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/39 | 289 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 8 | 12 | 113 | 2 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 6 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 3 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Derek Hagan | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.99