2010 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Cowboys Stadium · open · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.002
- 40.8%Success rate43.2%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- -4.10CPOE+2.25
- 29.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.31Points / drive1.67
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 25/43 | 322 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 5 | 6 | 100 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 8 | 13 | 72 | 2 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Ryan Torain | 5 | 6 | 48 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 25/37 | 305 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 10 | 12 | 140 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 3 | 7 | 38 | 1 |
| Sam Hurd | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Manuel Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.27