2010 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

30·33

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

Cowboys Stadium · open · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -9.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.002
  • 40.8%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.085
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -4.10CPOE+2.25
  • 29.2%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.67
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:00730Field goal0–3
WASQ1 10:4636Punt0–3
DALQ1 9:46533Turnover on downs0–3
WASQ1 7:27432Turnover0–3
DALQ1 5:43427Touchdown0–10
WASQ1 4:093-1Punt0–10
DALQ1 2:171038Field goal0–13
WASQ2 12:50863Touchdown7–13
DALQ2 9:351192Touchdown7–20
WASQ2 3:44417Punt7–20
DALQ2 2:15961Missed field goal7–20
WASQ2 0:0200End of half7–20
WASQ3 15:003-5Turnover7–20
DALQ3 14:10515Touchdown7–27
WASQ3 12:06471Touchdown14–27
DALQ3 9:49980Field goal14–30
WASQ3 4:261577Touchdown22–30
DALQ4 13:4438Punt22–30
WASQ4 11:40956Touchdown30–30
DALQ4 7:37519Punt30–30
WASQ4 4:4664Punt30–30
DALQ4 3:11631Field goal30–33
WASQ4 0:50522Turnover30–33

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman25/4332242

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain11534.80
Keiland Williams144.00
Santana Moss2-1-0.50
Rex Grossman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong561000
Santana Moss813722
Chris Cooley57621
Ryan Torain56481
Mike Sellers13270
Keiland Williams13130
Roydell Williams0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna25/3730520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones12705.80
Tashard Choice15533.51
Jon Kitna4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten10121401
Felix Jones23470
Miles Austin37381
Sam Hurd46350
Tashard Choice45310
Chris Gronkowski11120
Martellus Bennett1220
Manuel Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.27