Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play-0.077
- 41.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.133EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.93CPOE+2.13
- 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.78Points / drive1.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 12/19 | 102 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 25 | 92 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 15/29 | 149 | 0 | 3 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1/1 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 2 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.38