2010 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·10

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • +0.028EPA / play-0.077
  • 41.8%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.93CPOE+2.13
  • 38.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00732Turnover0–0
BALQ1 10:5136Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:13440Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 7:011580Field goal3–7
CLEQ2 13:3513Turnover3–7
BALQ2 13:17320Touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 11:47617Turnover10–7
BALQ2 8:02828Field goal13–7
CLEQ2 4:06950Field goal13–10
BALQ2 0:0300End of half13–10
BALQ3 15:00338Touchdown20–10
CLEQ3 13:30515Punt20–10
BALQ3 11:3939Punt20–10
CLEQ3 9:32819Punt20–10
BALQ3 5:1124Turnover20–10
CLEQ3 4:24517Punt20–10
BALQ3 2:041139Punt20–10
CLEQ4 9:361167Turnover20–10
BALQ4 4:35935Turnover on downs20–10
CLEQ4 0:14220End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco12/1910221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice25923.70
Willis McGahee8344.30
Joe Flacco3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason46501
T.J. Houshmandzadeh44321
Anquan Boldin24150
Donte' Stallworth0100
Ray Rice1200
Ed Dickson0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy15/2914903
Mohamed Massaquoi1/12910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis12352.90
Colt McCoy4307.50
Mike Bell7273.90
Josh Cribbs284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Bell22480
Chansi Stuckey46390
Brian Robiskie25351
Benjamin Watson35220
Mohamed Massaquoi26140
Josh Cribbs1290
Alex Smith1160
Peyton Hillis1150
Demetrius Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.38